Melbourne’s property market has softened in early 2026 – but it’s far from a blanket slowdown.

Different price points, property types and locations are all behaving differently. While the headlines suggest a quieter market, what we’re seeing on the ground is something more nuanced. Buyers are still active, but far more considered. And strong results are still happening – they’re just being earned differently.

We’ve broken down the first quarter of the year, along with what we’re seeing across our campaigns, and where the real opportunities sit right now.

Q1 2026 by the numbers

According to Cotality, Melbourne dwelling values have eased slightly over the first quarter of 2026.

• Median dwelling value: $828,249
• March movement: -0.2%
• Q1 movement: -0.6%
• Annual growth: +3.4%

Melbourne is now sitting:

• 0.9% below its November 2025 peak
• 1.3% below its 2022 peak

This isn’t a market that has dropped away.

It’s a market that has lost momentum and become more selective.

What we’re seeing on the ground

Across our sales campaigns, the shift is clear:

• Buyers are taking longer to make decisions
• There is more comparison between properties
• Negotiation is more common
• Well-priced properties are still attracting strong interest

In simple terms, the market is still active.

But it’s no longer forgiving.

A local view – how our key markets are tracking

To bring this into context, here’s how some of the key markets we operate in are performing right now. While the broader Melbourne story is one of moderation, local conditions are still varying significantly.

Suburb

Median Apartment Price

Market Movement

What We’re Seeing

Source: Internal data, recent campaigns and market observations

What stands out across these markets is that entry-level apartments are continuing to perform, while buyers become more price-sensitive as values increase.

We’re also seeing a widening gap between:

• properties that are well-priced and well-presented
• and those that aren’t

That gap is becoming more obvious with every campaign.

Apartments vs houses – momentum is shifting

One of the more notable trends this year is the relative strength of apartments compared to houses.

After several years of houses outperforming, the gap has narrowed. In some areas, apartments are now leading, driven by:

• affordability constraints
• returning first home buyers
• stronger investor activity

This reflects a broader shift we’re seeing across the market, where buyers are prioritising value and liveability over stretching into higher price brackets.

Buyer behaviour has changed

The biggest shift in 2026 isn’t price – it’s behaviour.

Buyers today are:

• more cautious
• more informed
• less emotional
• less willing to overpay

This is particularly noticeable in:

• upsizers
• second or third home buyers
• higher price points

At the same time, activity remains strong in:

• entry-level markets
• investor-grade properties

The rental market is still supporting demand

While the sales market has softened, the rental market continues to underpin investor confidence.

According to SQM Research:

• Vacancy rates remain tight at around 1.4%
• Rental growth is still sitting at approximately 4% annually

This is continuing to draw investors back into the market, particularly for well-located apartments with strong rental appeal.

What this means for sellers

This is no longer a market where you can simply test a price.

Success is now driven by:

• accurate pricing from day one
• strong presentation
• a well-executed campaign

Buyers are still there.

But they are choosing carefully.

What this means for buyers

For buyers, this is one of the more balanced conditions we’ve seen in some time.

• More choice
• Less urgency
• Greater negotiating power

For those who are prepared, this creates genuine opportunity.

Our view

Melbourne isn’t booming, but it’s far from stagnant.

It’s a market that has become:

• more considered
• more strategic
• more dependent on execution

The properties that are priced and presented well are still performing.

The ones that aren’t are sitting.

And that gap is where the opportunity lies.